Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Dagmar?Schr?terEmail author Colin?Polsky Anthony?G?Patt |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany;(2) Graduate School of Geography and George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA, 01609, U.S.A.;(3) Department of Global Change and Social Systems, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany |
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Abstract: | In the recent years, global environmental change research has seen increased attention to the concept of vulnerability. There
have been a growing number of vulnerability assessments, but relatively little discussion on appropriate and common methods.
Here we propose a method to guide vulnerability assessments of coupled human–environment systems toward a common objective:
informing the decision-making of specific stakeholders about options for adapting to the effects of global change. We suggest
five criteria vulnerability assessments must at least possess to achieve this objective. They should have a knowledge base
from various disciplines and stakeholder participation, be place based, consider multiple interacting stresses, examine differential
adaptive capacity, and be prospective as well as historical. On the basis of these criteria, we present a general methodological
guideline of eight steps. To examine whether these eight steps, if attentively coordinated, do in fact achieve the criteria,
and in turn satisfy the objective of the assessment, we discuss two case studies. We expect most readers to identify some
of the steps as part of their well-established disciplinary practices. However, they should also identify one or more steps
as uncommon to their research traditions. Thus taken together the eight steps constitute a novel methodological framework.
We hypothesize that if researchers employ this framework, then the products of the research will (1) achieve the objective
of preparing stakeholders for the effects of global change on a site-specific basis, and (2) further the “public good” of
additional insights through cross-study comparisons of research projects designed according to common principles. |
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Keywords: | adaptation adaptive capacity exposure global environmental change integrated assessment modeling sensitivity stakeholders sustainability vulnerability |
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