区域风险评价方法研究

基于定量风险评价的基本原理,提出一种区域风险评价方法。主要针对有多个重大危险源存在的区域,在对单个危险源进行风险评价的基础上,应用叠加原理得到描述该区域整体风险状况的定量评价结果。同时考虑了消防部门和医疗机构在事故应急救援中的积极作用,并将其量化为区域风险的补偿系数。通过实例验证了该方法的可行性,展示了该方法的应用效果。区域风险评价方法不仅能够反映区域风险的分布状况,而且对区域重大危险源的规划和布局具有较好的决策支持作用。

Study on Regional Risk Assessment Methodology

Based on the theory of quantitative risk assessment, a regional risk assessment (RRA) method was put forward. On the basis of the risk assessment for each major hazard and referring to the accumulative principle, the consequence of quantitative risk evaluation describing the risk as a whole in the region could be obtained. Meanwhile, the positive reactions taken by fire fighting and medical care departments were also taken into account and quantified as compensating coefficient of the regional risk. The feasibility of the method was exemplified and verified with a real case; the application effectiveness of the method was demonstrated. The method not only could reflect the distribution of regional risks, but also could provide decision support to the planning and layout of regional major risk sources.