中国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的行业贡献分解研究

现阶段碳强度约束性指标和总量控制碳排放权交易试点是中国温室气体减排的两种重要手段,研究各行业及其相关因素对全国碳强度和碳排放变化的影响机制对制定行业碳强度减排政策和选择碳交易体系纳管行业具有重要意义.运用LMDI模型对1996~2010年中国碳强度以及碳排放变化进行了行业贡献分解.结果表明,全国碳强度下降受各行业碳强度和增加值占比变化的影响,前者贡献较大,后者贡献较小;全国碳排放增长受各行业碳强度和增加值变化的影响,前者起到抑制效应,后者发挥决定性的促进作用.电力、热力的生产和供应业,非金属矿物制品业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,交通运输、仓储及邮电通迅业,化学原料及化学品制造业等5个行业对全国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的贡献最大;石油加工及炼焦业和建筑业对全国碳强度下降贡献较小,但对碳排放增长贡献较大;它们是我国碳强度约束和总量控制试点应当重点关注的减排领域.第三产业对全国碳排放增长的贡献呈上升趋势,尤其是交通运输、仓储及邮电通迅业和批发和零售贸易业、餐饮业,应当逐步加强对其进行碳排放管控.

Research on Contribution Decomposition by Industry to China's Carbon Intensity Reduction and Carbon Emission Growth

The binding carbon intensity index and the pilot "cap-and-trade" emission trading scheme are two important approaches currently applied by China to mitigate its greenhouse gases emissions. It is of great significance to research the influence mechanism of related factors by industry on the dynamics of national carbon intensity and emission, not only for setting industry-specified intensity reduction target but also for setting industry coverage of the ETS. Two LMDI models were applied in this paper to decompose industry contributions to the changes of China's carbon intensity and carbon emission during the period of 1996-2010. Empirical results showed that: The decline of national carbon intensity was jointly determined by the changes of carbon intensities and the added value proportions of all industries, and the impact of industry carbon intensities was larger. The increase of national carbon emission was jointly determined by the changes of carbon intensities and the added value of all industries. The former had inhibitory effect whist the latter had decisive promoting effect. The five industries making the largest contribution to the changes of national carbon emission and carbon intensity included industries of electricity, nonmetal mineral, ferrous metal, transportation service, chemical materials, which were followed by the industries of agriculture, coal mining and processing, petroleum and natural gas extraction. Petroleum refining and coking industry and construction industry made small contribution to the decline of national carbon intensity, but made large contribution to the growth of national carbon emission. The contributions of service industries to national carbon emission growth showed a rising trend, especially those of transportation service industry, wholesaling, retailing and catering service industry.