基于系统动力学的辽宁省生态安全预警研究

基于P—S—R框架建立辽宁省城市生态安全预警评价指标体系，在此基础上，利用系统动力学方法构建辽宁省城市“资源-人口-经济-社会-环境”复合系统的生态安全预警模型，通过VENSIM仿真2010年至2020年的辽宁省城市生态安全预警指标趋势值，运用综合评价法对辽宁省14个城市进行生态安全预警评价。结果表明，未来10年生态安全预警评价结果分为3类：生态安全区、生态安全持续危险区和生态退化区。生态持续危险区和生态退化区属于生态安全预警区域，主要集中在辽宁省西北部。从辽宁省生态安全动态变化看，未来生态安全形势比较严峻。仿真结果表明基于系统动力学的生态安全预警结果可为辽宁省城市发展与建设提供一定的理论依据。

Research on City Eco-security Early-warning in Liaoning Province Based on System Dynamics

Human activities have brought tremendous pressures on the ecological environment, causing frequent and serious disasters to ecological security. The city eco - security early - warning evaluation indicator system of Liaoning Province is based on Pressure - State - Response （ P - S - R） structure. A city eco - security early - warning model which combined factors of re- sources, population, economy, society and environment was built in this paper. This research adopts the combination assessment method to simulate a series of eco - security early - warning indexes of 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 2010 to 2020 through VENSIM. The results show that eco - security early - warning assessment can be sorted into three types ： safe areas, consistently endangered areas and degraded areas. The latter two is regarded as early - warning areas which mainly in the north - west of Lia- oning Province. Its eco - security trend is very serious in future ten years. The simulation results show that the model based on SD of the eco - security early - warning agrees with the actual state. The results provide a theoretical basis for the development of Lia- oning Province.