工业用水与经济发展的关系——用水库兹涅茨曲线

经验数据显示,发达国家工业用水随经济发展的变化存在着一个由上升转而下降的转折点。因此,工业用水随收入增长的演变模式可以用库兹涅茨曲线形式来表示。工业用水下降点对应的人均GDP的阈值是3700-17 000US$(PPP,以1985年为基数)。与之相应的第二产业在GDP总量中所占份额是30％～50％。工业用水下降的直接原因是用水效率的提高,其来源有两方面:部门用水效率的提高和经济结构调整。这提供了一个积极的信号,即发展中国家的工业用水将不会一直持续增长,从而为更好地预测发展中国家的工业用水量提供非常重要的思路,也为正确把握用水变化规律,制定符合规律的水资源对策提供科学基础。

Relation of Industrial water Use and Economic Development:Water Use Kuznets Curve

Empirical data show that there exists a turning point of industrial water use from increasing to decreasing in most developed countries.So the evolution of industrial water use along with income rising can be displayed in the frame of Kuznets Curve.The per capita GDP threshold of industrial water use turning down is 3700-17000$ (PPP,base year of 1985).The accompanying secondary industrial share in total GDP (SISGDP) is 30%-50%.The turning down of industrial water use concurred with the rapid decrease of SISGDP and the dwindling of heavy sectors.The direct cause of industrial water use decrease is water use efficiency gains,which come from two sources:a gain in water use efficiency within sectors and the economic structural adjustment.It gives us a good signal that the industrial water use in developing countries will not increase continuously,hence providing very important clues to the better forecast of industrial water use in developing countries.