Basin-scale hydrogeologic impacts of CO2 storage: Capacity and regulatory implications

Industrial-scale injection of CO₂ into saline formations in sedimentary basins will cause large-scale fluid pressurization and migration of native brines, which may affect valuable groundwater resources overlying the deep sequestration aquifers. In this paper, we discuss how such basin-scale hydrogeologic impacts (1) may reduce current storage capacity estimates, and (2) can affect regulation of CO₂ storage projects. Our assessment arises from a hypothetical future carbon sequestration scenario in the Illinois Basin, which involves twenty individual CO₂ storage projects (sites) in a core injection area most suitable for long-term storage. Each project is assumed to inject five million tonnes of CO₂ per year for 50 years. A regional-scale three-dimensional simulation model was developed for the Illinois Basin that captures both the local-scale CO₂–brine flow processes and the large-scale groundwater flow patterns in response to CO₂ storage. The far-field pressure buildup predicted for this selected sequestration scenario support recent studies in that environmental concerns related to near- and far-field pressure buildup may be a limiting factor on CO₂ storage capacity. In other words, estimates of storage capacity, if solely based on the effective pore volume available for safe trapping of CO₂, may have to be revised based on assessments of pressure perturbations and their potential impacts on caprock integrity and groundwater resources. Our results suggest that (1) the area that needs to be characterized in a permitting process may comprise a very large region within the basin if reservoir pressurization is considered, and (2) permits cannot be granted on a single-site basis alone because the near- and far-field hydrogeologic response may be affected by interference between individual storage sites. We also discuss some of the challenges in making reliable predictions of large-scale hydrogeologic impacts related to CO₂ sequestration projects.