基于突变理论的工业园区环境承载力动态评价方法

基于所建立的涵盖自然和人为要素的环境承载力评价指标体系,以珠海富山工业园区为例,开发基于突变理论的工业园区环境承载力动态评价模型,模拟珠海富山工业园区3种规划情景下的环境承载力变化.结果表明,园区自然环境承载力于规划中后期处于下降的趋势,下降的趋势伴随着园区规划发展速率越快;而人为环境承载力伴随着园区规划建设处于上升趋势,规划建设初期的上升趋势最为迅速.而总体上,环境承载力则在发展中前期上升趋势较为明显,到了规划末期呈现出一定程度的下降,规划末期环境承载力水平基本与初期保持一致.

Dynamic evaluation on environmental carrying capacity of industrial park with catastrophe progression method

With Fushan industrial park in Zhuhai City as a case study, jointed with the established Environmental Carrying Capacity (ECC) index system, the dynamic evaluation model of industrial park with catastrophe progression method was built to simulate the variation of ECC under three kinds of industrial plan scenarios. In this model, the indicators of ECC can be grouped into natural ECC and artificial ECC. The results indicated that the natural ECC would be descending after middle period of planning, while the artificial ECC would ascend during whole process of planning, especially in the beginning period of planning. As a whole, the ECC would ascend in the pre-middle period, and descend in the finial period, and the status of comprehensive ECC would maintain at a stable level.