干旱灾害风险评估的研究进展

干旱灾害风险评估是风险管理和减灾管理的基础,其成果可以为救灾减灾提供科学依据.对干旱灾害系统的复杂性与非线性以及干旱灾害风险评估的程序、方法模型与研究内容等进展进行了综述.在此基础上,展望了干旱灾害风险评估的综合性、动态性等发展趋势,并预测了进一步研究的重点.

New advances on drought risk assessment and its prospects

The present paper has introduced the newest advances in China in the research of drought damage assessment with some very resourceful challenging measures suggested in natural disaster alleviation and prevention. As is known, in recent years, researchers at home and abroad have initiated and strengthened their researches on the drought damage assessment. They have also come up with a series of promising assessment methods based on the comprehensive analysis on the causes and mechanism of the drought, direct/indirect damages they brought to people's life to the social life, economic development and environmental protection so as to mitigate them. Reviewing the state of art, such as the general frame of drought damage assessment, complexity and non-leaner of drought-disaster system, this paper has pointed out that some aspects should be further studied. First of all, more influential factors affecting drought risk assessment should be included. Secondly, more attention should be paid to the eco-environmentally fragile zones. And thirdly, drought damage assessment has to be connected with some other theoretical problems involved.