Photochemical dispersion modeling: Review of model concepts and applications studies

Over the last decade, the development and application of sophisticated atmospheric models that simulate the transport and dispersion of ozone and its precursors have advanced rapidly. Further advancements are most likely to be found in more complete temporal and spatial characterization of photochemical smog formation processes via measurement. This paper provides an overview of the development of atmospheric photochemical dispersion models, first discussing in general terms the various physical processes occurring in the atmosphere that govern the formation, transport, and ultimate fate of ozone. Procedures for representing these physical processes in mathematical terms are presented next. Nearly all of the photochemical models in use today are derived from the semiempirical atmospheric diffusion equation, though theoretical formulations vary depending on which of the various terms in the pollutant mass balance equation are deemed significant for the application at hand. Examples of recent applications of the range of available photochemical model are presented, together with estimates of the accuracy of each generic modeling concept. Several topics warranting future research are identified, including the need to incorporate explicitly more of the stochastic (or probabilistic) nature of the atmosphere into the form of current photochemical model predictions (i.e., estimates of the variance and higher order moments of the predicted concentration distribution).