灾害演化网络时序性风险评估模型

为探究灾害演化过程中风险的时变特征和时序性风险评估的可行性,采用灾害演化理论和方法,综合考虑灾害链式效应、灾害后果时变性和政府干预等因素,首先,建立由灾害损失度、灾害发生概率、灾害直接风险和灾害综合风险共4个子模型构成的灾害演化网络时序性风险评估模型;然后,通过数值算例验证该模型的可行性;最后,分析所提模型的优越性。研究结果表明:所提模型可评估灾害演化网络直接风险和综合风险水平及其动态变化趋势;可分析得到灾害演化网络中关键节点高风险出现时机以及持续时间等风险时变特征。

Time-series risk assessment model for disaster evolution network

In order to explore time-varying characteristics of risk during disaster evolution and feasibility of time-series risk assessment, such an assessment model for disaster evolution network was firstly constructed by adopting disaster evolution theory and methods. The model was mainly composed of four sub-models,including disaster loss degree,disaster occurrence probability,disaster direct risk and comprehensive risk based on factors like chain effects of disaster, time-varying consequences and government intervention. Then,the model’s feasibility was verified through numerical examples. Finally,its superiority was analyzed. The results show that the constructed model could not only evaluate direct and comprehensive risk for disaster evolution network and obtain their dynamic change trend,but also analyze high-risk occurrence time and duration of key nodes in the network.