THE FOREST–HYDROLOGY–POVERTY NEXUS IN CENTRAL AMERICA: AN HEURISTIC ANALYSIS

A ‘forest–hydrology–poverty nexus’ hypothesis asserts that deforestation in poor upland areas simultaneously threatens biodiversity and increases the incidence of flooding, sedimentation and other damaging hydrological processes. This paper uses rough heuristics to assess the applicability of this hypothesis to two montane forested countries in Central America: Guatemala and Honduras. We do so by using simple rules of thumb to identify watersheds at greater risk of hydrologically significant land use change, using information about land cover, slope, and watershed size. The location of these watersheds is compared to spatial maps of poverty and forests. We find plausible evidence for a forest–biodiversity–poverty connection in Guatemala, and to a lesser extent in Honduras.