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Using uncertainty analysis to reduce costs at a pump-and-treat site
Authors:Andrew Curtis Elmore  Mark A Vandeberg
Abstract:The former Nebraska Ordnance Plant site in east-central Nebraska was included on the National Priorities List because of explosives and trichloroethene contamination. The preferred groundwater remedy includes hydraulic containment of the contaminated groundwater and focused extraction of the more highly contaminated groundwater as components of the remedial action. The purpose of hydraulic containment is to stop the spread of contamination, while the more aggressive focused extraction will be used to speed up the remediation and reduce total cleanup costs. This case study illustrates how straightforward groundwater models were combined with uncertainty analysis to select a precise definition of the focused extraction areas. The purpose of the analysis was to reduce ultimate remediation costs, given the significant uncertainty associated with the estimated remediation times. The selected definition provides a basis for more sophisticated groundwater modeling, the goal of which was to locate extraction wells and define their flow rates. The batch flushing model provided the governing equations, and Monte Carlo analysis was used for the uncertainty analysis. All of the analysis was performed on a personal computer using commercially available software.
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