舰船结冰预报方法研究

目的：为在可能导致舰船结冰的海区航行的舰船提供结冰预报模型，保证船舶的航行安全。方法基于结冰表面热平衡理论，给出舰船结冰预报模型和预报工具。结果给出中等舰船结冰危险等级，结冰强度小于1.5 t/h为弱结冰风险等级，1.5～4.0 t/h时为中等结冰风险等级，大于4.0 t/h为强结冰风险等级。结论提出的结冰预报方法和工具简便易行，对于保障舰船在高纬海区的安全航行具有重大意义。

Forecast Methods for Ship Icing

Objective To propose ship icing forecast tools for supporting ship navigation safety on the high latitude sea area, in order to ensure navigation safety of ships. Methods The ship icing forecast model and forecast tool were given based on icing surface thermal equilibrium theory. Results The ship icing risk rank was provided. The risk level was low when the icing strength was less than 1.5 ton/hour. The risk level was medium when the icing strength was between 1.5 ton/hour and 4.0 ton/hour. The risk level was high when the icing strength was larger than 4.0 ton/hour. Conclusion The proposed ship icing forecast method and tool are easy to operate, and have significance for the navigation safety of ships in the high-latitude sea area.