Simulation of small bird populations. I. Development of a stochastic model

A computer model was developed to simulate the fate of small populations of birds. It uses general and easily available data as input. Monte-Carlo techniques are used and a survival probability is calculated for every population member four times per simulated year. The model allows for density-dependence in winter survival and also in fecundity.Simulation results are used to compile standard age-specific life-tables for all complete cohorts generated. A mean life-table is also made. The survivor functions, both accumulated and mean, are contrasted with control functions and tested for significance.The model has been applied to classical population data in ornithology, namely those for the great tit and the tawny owl in Wytham Woods (Oxford, UK). There was a fair agreement between simulation results and field data.