锦州市2015年二氧化硫新增量预测

根据《“十二五”主要污染物总量控制规划编制技术指南》提供的公式，预测社会经济发展主要参数，包括GDP、能源消费总量、煤炭消费量等指标。二氧化硫新增量预测以宏观测算方法为主，并按行业测算方法予以校核。宏观测算分为火电行业和非电力行业，结果为1.419万t；分行业预测分为石化、建材（水泥）、有色、冶金和其他行业，结果为1.774万t，两者预测偏差为25%，采用分行业预测结果作为2015年二氧化硫新增量预测。

Predicting the New Increment of Sulfur Dioxide of Jinzhou City in 2015

According to the formula supplied by Technical Guide of Controlling the Total Amount of Major Populants in the 12th Five-year Plan, forcasted the main parameters of the social development, including GDP, tatal energy consumed, coal consumption, etc. Macro-method should be applied to measure the new increment of sulfur dioxide, the results should be checked according to the measurement methods in different industries. Macro-forecast can be divided into thermal power industry and non-electrinic power industry, the result is 14 190 t. Forecasting by industries can be devided into petrifaction, building materials （ cement） , non-ferrous matals, metallurgy and so on, the result is 17 740 t. The deviation between them is 25%. The result of forecasting by industries was taken as the new increment of sulfur dioxide in 2015.