| 长三角地区台风灾害风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈文方,徐伟,史培军.长三角地区台风灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2011(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈文方 徐伟 史培军 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目“长三角地区自然灾害风险等级评估技术研究”(2008BAK50B07);“高等学校学科创新引智计划”(B08008) |
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| 摘 要： | 中国长三角地区由于濒临西北太平洋,成为受台风灾害影响最严重的地区之一。结合灾害风险理论,将该地区16个地级市的140个县(包括一般县、县级市和市辖区)作为研究单元,对台风灾害风险进行了评估。选用台风大风和台风降雨等10个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了各县的台风致灾因子强度指数;选用各县2006年底人口密度、地区生产总值和第一产业产值占总产值的比例等3个指标,采用主成分分析法计算了其承灾体脆弱性指数;将致灾因子指数与脆弱性指数相乘,得到了各县的台风灾害风险指数,从而得到了风险等级图。该风险等级图揭示了台风灾害风险在长三角地区的等级分布状况,可以为长三角地区台风灾害防范策略的制定提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风灾害 风险 主成分分析 长三角 |
Risk assessment of typhoon disaster at county level in the Yangtze River Delta of China |
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| CHEN Wen-fang,XU Wei,SHI Pei-jun.Risk assessment of typhoon disaster at county level in the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011(4). |
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| Authors: | CHEN Wen-fang XU Wei SHI Pei-jun |
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| Institution: | CHEN Wen-fang1,2,XU Wei1,SHI Pei-jun1,3(1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China,2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,3.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education,China) |
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| Abstract: | The Yangtze River Delta,located in the eastern coastal area of China,is one of the most prone areas to typhoon hazard in China.Typhoon disaster risk of this region was assessed at county level based on disaster risk theory.The typhoon hazard magnitude was calculated with a principal component analysis(PCA) method by selecting 10 indices,including annual average precipitation caused by typhoon,annual average ground wind speed caused by typhoon,number of days with total precipitations more than 50mm,100mm,and... |
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| Keywords: | typhoon disaster risk principle component analysis Yangtze River Delta |
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