| 基于灰色-模糊理论的农业旱灾风险分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 娄伟平,陈海燕,吴睿.基于灰色-模糊理论的农业旱灾风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 娄伟平 陈海燕 吴睿 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 新昌县气象局;浙江省气象台; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技部星火计划项目(2008GA700164); 浙江省科技厅项目(2011C22082) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 从农业旱灾的自然与社会双重属性出发,并考虑系统的不确定性,分析了农业旱灾风险。应用信息扩散理论计算了干旱出现机率,将灰色系统理论和风险分析理论相结合,在确定干旱出现机率的基础上计算农业旱灾灰色风险率,前者考虑了系统的模糊不确定性,后者考虑了对系统认知缺乏所产生的主观不确定性,完善了农业旱灾风险分析,为防灾减灾和开展政策性农业保险提供参考。
|
| 关 键 词： | 农业旱灾 风险分析 信息扩散 灰色系统 灰色风险率 |
Risk analysis of agricultural drought disaster based on grey-fuzzy theory |
| |
| LOU Wei-ping,CHEN Hai-yan,WU Rui.Risk analysis of agricultural drought disaster based on grey-fuzzy theory[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011(4). |
| |
| Authors: | LOU Wei-ping CHEN Hai-yan WU Rui |
| |
| Institution: | LOU Wei-ping1,CHEN Hai-yan2,WU Rui1(1.Xinchang Meteorological Bureau,Xinchang 312500,China,2.Zhejiang Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Hangzhou 310000,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Risk analysis is a basis of agricutural drought disaster prevention and reduction and development of policy-guided agricultural insurance.This paper focuses on drought disaster risk analysis from disaster's natural and social attributes,and the uncertainty of the system.The information diffusion theory was used to evaluate probability of drought,and the grey probability of drought disaster was analyzed with grey system theory and risk analysis theory based on probability of drought.The former method would c... |
| |
| Keywords: | agricultural drought disaster risk analysis information diffusion grey system grey risk probability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
