| 风险分析基本方法探讨 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 黄崇福. 风险分析基本方法探讨[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 0(5) |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 黄崇福 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学);北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 面对未来不利事件的不确定性,对其情景的认识只能进行风险分析。人们研究出了许多的风险分析方法,但基本方法只有5种:发生概率计算法、暴露评价法、危险辨识法、期望值计算法和经验合成法。它们的共同点是:(1)明确具体风险内涵,框定风险问题涉及的系统;(2)涉及风险源、影响和后果;(3)进行不确定意义下的量化分析。由此我们总结出风险分析基本原理,并确认了自然灾害风险分析基本原理和自然灾害风险分析的基本模式。
|
| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 不确定性 基本方法 基本原理 基本模式 |
Discussion on basic methods for risk analysis |
| |
| HUANG Chong-fu,. Discussion on basic methods for risk analysis[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 0(5) |
| |
| Authors: | HUANG Chong-fu |
| |
| Affiliation: | HUANG Chong-fu1,2,3 (1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China,2.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Facing the uncertainty of future adverse events,what we can do to recognize the scene of the events is risk analysis.People come up with a lot of risk analysis methods,but only five basic methods: probability calculation,exposure assessment,hazard identification,expected value and integrating experiences.They have the following common characteristics:(1) specifying intension of risk and framing the system involved by the risk issue;(2) involving the risk source,effect and consequence;(3) quantitatively anal... |
| |
| Keywords: | risk analysis uncertainty basic method basic principle basic model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
