基于层次分析法的河北省太行山区泥石流灾害危险性评估研究

在深入分析河北省太行山区泥石流灾害的基础上,采用层次分析法,从泥石流的地形条件、物源条件和水动力条件中选取11个指标作为评价泥石流危险度的评价因子,建立了河北省太行山区泥石流危险度评价模型。所建立的模型中,形成条件所占权重为0.333、物源条件所占权重为0.333和水动力条件所占权重为0.333。利用该模型对当地泥石流沟道进行危险度评价,其结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性。研究表明,运用层次分析法进行河北省太行山区泥石流危险度评价是实用的和有效的。

Assessment Study of Debris Flow Risk in the Taihang Mountain Area,Hebei Province Based on AHP

This study adopts analytic hierarchy process to quantify 11 factors from terrain factor ,provenance factors and hydrodynamic forces and constructs a model for debris flow risk degree assessment on analyzing in depth the scourge of debris flow of Taihang Mountain area of Hebei Province. In the model,the percentage of terrain factors is 0.333,the percentage of provenance factors is 0.333 and the percentage of hydrodynamic forces is 0.333. The model is applied to assessing the risk degree of local debris gullies. Results obtained have a high relativity to the real situation. The study indicates that this kind of assessment is feasible and veracious for the assessment of the debris flow risk degree of the Taihang Mountain area,Hebei Province.