GIS和情景分析辅助的流域水污染控制规划

总结了流域水污染控制规划中的正向算法和反向算法及其优缺点.以江西赣江流域为例, 以ARCGIS8.1为平台,建立了流域水环境功能区划、污染源、监测断面和排污口等空间数据库. 基于正向算法,利用情景分析法构造了流域水污染控制的4种情景,并在4种情景下生成了对污染源实行逐级控制的10组规划方案. 利用费用函数对各方案的污水处理投资进行估算;结合污染源预测,利用水质模型对各方案进行水质模拟,并将模拟的结果通过GIS的可视化表达来进行辅助决策. 以水质达标和投资费用作为规划方案的决策依据,通过赣江流域水污染治理的经济可承受能力的分析,优选出2套经济上能承受、水质上可接受的流域水污染控制方案.结果表明,GIS和情景分析法对于流域水污染控制规划在综合性、完整性和可持续性等方面具有良好的指导意义.

GIS and Scenario Analysis Aid to Water Pollution Control Planning of River Basin

The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.