基于熵权模糊综合评价的铁路危险货物运输预警

为保证危险货物铁路运输安全,基于铁路交通灾害预警管理理论,就危险货物铁路运输提出预警管理方法和建议。首先大量参阅危险货物铁路运输事故案例,结合安全系统工程理论,构建危险货物铁路运输预警系统指标体系。然后针对模糊综合评价权重难以确定的问题,为避免权重主观性过强,利用基于熵权模糊综合评价法对危险货物铁路运输安全进行评价。结合实例试算,结果表明:基于熵权模糊综合评价法的结果同原用评价法的结果基本一致。最后探讨铁路危险货物运输的定性预控措施。

Study on Early Warning for Railway Transport of Dangerous Goods Based on Entropy Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

In order to ensure the safety of railway transport of dangerous goods,early warning management methods and suggestions for railway transport of dangerous goods were proposed on the basis of railway transport disaster warning management theory.Firstly,the early warning index system was properly set up by analyzing the reasons of frequently happened accidents during railway transport of dangerous goods and referring to the safety system engineering theory.Secondly,considering that the weight of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is difficult to determine,the safety condition of railway transport of dangerous goods was evaluated on basis of entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,which effectively avoided the strong subjectivity of weights.Then an example was given to trial calculation,the results show that the evaluation results based on entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and that on original evaluation method are basically the same.Finally,some qualitative measures for pre-controlling railway transport of dangerous goods were preliminary explored.