基于耗散结构和熵的高速铁路事故演化机理研究

针对高速铁路事故致因复杂的特点及高速铁路运营安全评价研究现状,提出应用耗散结构和熵理论来研究高速铁路运营事故演化机理。首先,在分析高速铁路安全运营影响因素的基础上,提出基于信息熵的典型事故安全要素集构建方法。其次,基于耗散结构和熵理论,研究高速铁路运营事故的演化机理。给出高速铁路运营安全系统的熵流模型及其熵值计算方法。通过系统熵变,判别事故演化方向。最后,通过分析高速铁路脱轨事故的演化机理,实例验证该方法的合理性和可行性。研究表明,把熵作为一个参数,能够揭示高速铁路运营事故的演化趋势;流入负熵流和排出正熵流,能够保持系统稳定有序,有效防止事故发生。

Evolution Mechanism of High-speed Railway Accident Based on Dissipative Structure and Entropy Theory

The dissipative structure and entropy theory were introduced to study the evolution mechanism of high-speed railway accident.Firstly,on the basis of analyzing the factors influencing the safe high-speed railway operation,for building the typical aecident safety factor set,an information entropy-based method was worked out.Secondly,evolution mechanism of high-speed railway accident was studied on the basis of dissipative structure and entropy theory.An entropy flow model for high-speed railway operation safety system and its entropy value method were given.Accident evolution direction was distinguished by entropy change.Finally,through analyzing the evolution mechanism of the high-speed railway derailment accident,the rationality and reliability of this method were verified.Research shows that the evolution trend of the high-speed railway operation can be revealed by entropy,influxion of negative entropy and excretion of positive entropy can keep the system stable and prevent accidents.