| 曲线回归与傅里叶级数组合方法在瓦斯抽采量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 范加冬,韩立军.曲线回归与傅里叶级数组合方法在瓦斯抽采量预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(2):112-115. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范加冬 韩立军 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学深部岩土力学与地下工程国家重点实验室,江苏徐州221008;中国矿业大学力学与建筑工程学院,江苏徐州221008 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决瓦斯抽采量的预测问题,针对瓦斯抽采量随时间的变化波动性较大的特点,用曲线回归和傅里叶级数组合方法,建立关于瓦斯抽采量的预测模型。首先采用基于最小二乘原理的曲线回归研究瓦斯抽采量总体趋势,得到回归方程。将瓦斯抽采量观测值与曲线回归结果相减,可得瓦斯抽采量各实测值在回归曲线上的波动值。采用Fourier级数分析该波动规律,得到其Fourier级数方程,将回归方程与Fourier级数方程相加即可完成预测模型的建立。研究结果表明,将此模型应用到某矿瓦斯抽采量预测分析中,预测结果精确度可达到98.39%。
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| 关 键 词： | 瓦斯抽采量 曲线回归 傅里叶级数 预测方法 波动值 |
Prediction Model for the Amount of Gas Extraction Based on Curve Regression and Fourier Series |
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| FAN Jia-dong
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HAN Li-jun.Prediction Model for the Amount of Gas Extraction Based on Curve Regression and Fourier Series[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(2):112-115. |
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| Authors: | FAN Jia-dong HAN Li-jun |
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| Institution: | 1,2 (1 State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,China University of Mining & Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221008,China 2 School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221008,China) |
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| Abstract: | To solve the problems in prediction of gas extraction volume,a gas extraction prediction model was built using the methods of curve regression and Fourier series.Firstly,curve regression which based on principle of least-squares is used to study the general trend,and the regression equation can be gotten.The values of fluctuations were got by the subtraction between the gas extraction volumes observed and the results of curve regression.By using Fourier series to analyze the fuctuation pattern,the equation of Fourier series was got.So the model was completed by adding the equation of regression to Fourier series.This model was tested in a certain mine,and the results indicates that the precision can be 98.39%. |
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| Keywords: | gas extraction curve regression Fourier series prediction method value of fluctuation |
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