湖北省土地利用结构变化及其驱动机制分析

采用1996～2004年的统计资料，分析了湖北省土地利用结构变化，研究发现全省耕地大幅度减少，其次是未利用地和牧草地；林地则迅速增加，其次为居民点及独立工矿、园地、其他农用地、交通用地和水利设施用地。随后运用典型相关分析法，以湖北省76个县级行政单位为研究单元，进一步对湖北省土地利用结构变化的驱动因子进行了统计分析，定量诊断出各驱动因子对湖北省土地利用结构变化贡献作用的大小。结果显示，湖北省土地利用结构与社会经济因素之间关系可以用4对典型相关变量表示，耕地、居民点及工矿用地、林地、交通用地、水利设施用地的发展变化分别对应于不同的社会经济驱动因子。

ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGE OF LAND USE STRUTURE AND ITS DRIVING FORCE IN HUBEI PROVINCE

Land use and cover change (LUCC) and its driving force is an important research subject of glob- al environment and sustainable development. Based on the sample units of 76 counties (cities) and the sta- tistical data from 1996 to 2004 of Hubei Province,9 types of land use structure changes were analyzed. It was found that cultivated land area decreased considerably during the period, and the area of unused land and grass land also decreased; forest land area increased quickly, and residential and industrialland,garden land, other farmland, transportation land and water conservancy land also increased to some extent. Then, driving forces of land use in Hubei Province were analyzed statistically using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method and taking the 76 counties as study units. The results showed that the relationship between land use structure and social economy in Hubei Province could be exhibited by four couples of canonical variables. (1) The first canonical variable showed that cultivated land and residential and industrial land were more remarkable among all land use types,and their canonical loading data were 0.95 and 0. 97 re- spectively; the corresponding explanatory variables included rural population, GDP and total output of grain with canonical loading data 0. 84,0. 82 and 0. 96 respectively. (2) The second showed that forest land was remarkable with its canonical loading being 0.88; the corresponding explanatory variable was popula- tion density with its canonical loading-0. 83. (3) The third showed that transportation land was remarka- ble with its canonical loading being 0. 43; the corresponding explanatory variables included urbanization level, per income of citizen and the gross industrial output value of industrial enterprises above designated size,and their canonical loading data were 0.37,0.49 and 0. 34 respectively. (4) The fourth showed that water conservancy land was remarkable with its canonical loading being 0. 58; the corresponding explana- tory variable was per income of villager,and its canonical loading was 0. 40.