中国报废汽车中铂族金属回收潜力估算

基于Gompertz模型预测中国2018~2050年民用汽车的社会保有量；在此基础上，采用物质流分析方法估算得出我国汽车高峰报废年限大约为9a.然后，通过市场供给A模型预测我国2018~2025年汽车报废量，结果显示，我国汽车报废量到2025年将达到2535.05万辆，并且地理空间分布极不均衡.基于上述汽车报废量的时空分布，测算不同技术发展情景下废汽车三元催化剂中的铂族金属回收潜力和需求量.结果显示：如果按照当前催化剂消耗水平，全国铂族金属的需求量均在2019年达到峰值，铂钯铑分别达到4.57，65.70，7.92t，有望实现行业内闭环供应；如果以欧盟汽车尾气治理标准为目标，而现有汽车技术不发生根本变化，需求量将大幅增加，铂钯铑分别在2020年达到峰值85.01，109.38，8.37t，存在严重的供需矛盾.为此，建议在汽车生产者责任延伸制度中，关注废催化剂的回收和再生利用，以促进前端生产环节在不同技术选择中考虑稀贵金属的供给限制.

Recycling potentials of Platinum-group metals from end-of-life vehicle in China

Based on the estimation of car ownership in China from 2018 to 2050 with Gompertz model, this research identified the average lifespan of cars in China as 9a by a time-series material flow analysis model. This result was used to estimate the amount of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) in China to reach 25.35 million by 2025 with extreme uneven geographical distribution. The recycling potential of platinum group metals was calculated accordingly, and compared with various scenarios of demand. The results show that:according to current catalyst consumption level, the demand for platinum group metals in China peaked in 2019, where Pt, Pd and Rh reached 4.57, 65.70 and 7.92t. It is expected to achieve closed-loop supply in automobile industry. If the EU emission standards are applied in China, the demand for platinum group metals will increase significantly, which could lead to serious shortage of supply. The demand for Pt, Pd and Rh will reach 85.01, 109.38, 8.37t in 2020. In conclusion, we suggested to incorporate the recycling of waste catalysts in the extended producer responsibility system for cars.