Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin |
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Authors: | Francis Davison Yamba Hartley Walimwipi Suman Jain Peter Zhou Boaventura Cuamba Cornelius Mzezewa |
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Institution: | (1) CEEEZ-Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Private Bag E 721, 176 Parirenyatwa Road, Suite B, Lusaka, Zambia;(2) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Zambia, P.O. Box 32379, Lusaka, Zambia;(3) Energy, Environment, Computing and Geophysical Applications(EECG), Gaborone, Botswana;(4) Department of Physics, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique;(5) EnerConsult Pvt Ltd, 21a Wilson Drive, P.O. Amby Greendale, Harare, Zimbabwe |
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Abstract: | The study has analysed the effects of various factors on hydroelectric power generation potential to include climate change/variability,
water demand, and installation of proposed hydroelectric power schemes in the Zambezi River Basin. An assessment of historical
(1970–2000) power potential in relation to climate change/variability at existing hydro electric power schemes(Cahora Bassa,
Kariba, Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-Tezhi) in the Zambezi River Basin was conducted. The correlation of hydroelectric power potential
with climate change/variability aimed at observing the link and extent of influence of the latter on the former was investigated.
In order to predict the future outlook of hydro electric power potential, General Circulation Models (GCM) were used to generate
projected precipitation. The monthly simulated precipitation was extracted from the GCM for every sub basin and used to compute
future precipitation. Further, future water demand in the sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin were estimated based on the
respective population growth rate in each sub basin. Subsequently, water balance model, with projected precipitation and water
demand input was used to determine projected run-offs of sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin. .Based on the projected run-offs
of sub basins, reservoir storage capacities at existing hydro electric power schemes were estimated. The baseline assessment
revealed a strong relationship between hydroelectric power potential and climate change/variability. The study also revealed
that the main climate and other risks associated with current and future hydro electric power generation include projected
dry years, floods and increasing water demand. The results indicate that the hydroelectric power potential has a tendency
towards gradual reduction in its potential in all existing and proposed hydroelectric power schemes owing to climate change
and increasing water demand. |
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