中国石化和化工行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

石化和化工行业是我国经济发展的支柱性产业，但同时也是高耗能、高排放行业。平衡石化和化工行业发展与碳达峰、碳中和之间的关系，制定科学、合理的减排措施，是实现石化和化工行业低碳绿色发展的重要措施。为此，研究围绕石化和化工重点行业，利用专家型和基于模型的边际成本曲线对我国石化和化工行业的关键减排技术及减排成本进行分析。研究结果显示，我国石化和化工行业平均减排成本为298元/tCO₂，2035年累积碳减排量为4.4亿t，约占行业碳排放总量的30%。与节能减排措施相比，能源替代手段具有较高的减排成本，但也同时具有较高的减排潜力。2035年，能源替代的减排潜力占到总减排潜力的62%。未来，应着力推动传统煤化工行业能源利用向可再生、清洁能源的转变，助推石化和化工行业碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。

MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST CURVES AND MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR PETROCHEMICAL AND CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES IN CHINA

Petrochemical and chemical industries are the pillar industries of China's national economy, as well as the industries with high energy consumption and emission. To achieve their low-carbon development, it's the key to balance the relationship between industry self-development and the goal of decarbonization. In this paper, we analyzed the key abatement technologies and the abatement costs for petrochemical and chemical industries through the expert-based and model-derived marginal abatement cost curve. The results indicated that the average abatement cost of petrochemical and chemical industries was RMB 298/t, with the potential of contributing the abatement of 0.44 billion tons CO₂ in 2035 (account for 30% of total carbon emissions). Compared with energy conservation technologies, energy substitution have higher abatement cost, but also have higher abatement potential. In 2035, the application of energy substitution will account for 62% of the total carbon emission abatement. In this case, promoting the transformation of coal to renewable, clean energy will be the key to achieve carbon neutrality in the petrochemical and chemical industries.