基于信息熵和GM(1,1)的上海市城市生态系统演化分析与灰色预测

城市生态系统是典型的"自然-社会-经济系统",城市的可持续发展依托于城市生态系统结构和功能的不断协调与完善.新一轮"城市化"进程中,城市生态系统将面临生态用地减少、环境衰退等诸多挑战,生态环境和经济发展之间的矛盾可能日益突出.因此,把握城市生态系统的演化方向,对于促进城市可持续发展和生态文明建设意义重大.本研究以"国际化大都市"上海市为研究对象,运用"耗散结构理论"和"信息熵"分析模型,构建包括支持型输入熵、压力型输出熵、氧化型代谢熵、还原型代谢熵4方面的"上海市城市生态系统演化指标体系",以统计资料和政府公报为数据来源,对上海市2003—2013年的城市生态系统演化进行了熵变分析;基于集成层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法(EVM)"综合赋权"的"综合发展度"和"协调发展度"模型对城市生态系统可持续发展状况进行了评价;采用"相关分析法"对城市生态系统熵变与可持续发展协同演化过程进行量化分析;并引入GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对上海市城市生态系统(2014—2020)年的演化趋势和方向做出了预测.研究得出以下结论:12003—2013年,上海市城市生态系统"熵流、熵产生和总熵变",均整体呈波动下降趋势.上海市城市生态系统有序度不断提高,总体朝健康态势发展.22003—2013年,上海市城市生态系统总体可持续发展态势良好,不断向健康可持续方向演进;环境与经济整体效益不断提高,但环境与经济发展之间的协调能力近年来有所下降.3上海市城市生态系统(2014—2020)期间的演化趋势预测:城市生态系统整体继续向健康、有序方向演进.城市生态系统可持续发展整体保持协调发展态势,但未来发展协调度可能从"初级协调"衰退为"勉强协调".最后,基于指标"熵权"和熵变时序提出了上海市城市生态系统的针对性优化措施:积极扶持城市生态农业发展,扩大进出口贸易规模,促进娱乐教育文化服务产业增长;进一步提高居民生态环保意识,提倡低碳生活;加强工业"三废"的达标排放,提高资源利用率,巩固城市绿化率,加大环保投资规模.本研究旨在为上海市城市生态系统健康可持续发展和优化调控提供一定的科学参考.

Analysis and forecasting of shanghai urban ecosystem evolution based on information entropy and GM (1,1)

Urban ecosystem is a typical "natural-social-economic system", and its sustainable development needs continuous structural and functional improvement. In the process of a new round of urbanization, urban ecosystems are facing challenges on ecological land reduction, environmental degradation, etc. The contradiction between ecological environment and economic development becomes increasingly significant. Better understanding and optimizing the evolutionary directions of urban ecosystem are therefore of great significance for both urban sustainable development and eco-civilization construction. In this study, Shanghai, an international metropolis, was selected as the study area. "Dissipative structures theory" and "Information entropy" models together with "Shanghai urban ecosystem evolution index system" were applied to the analysis of Shanghai Urban Ecosystem (SUE) evolution during 2003-2013; urban ecosystem sustainable development was evaluated based on "Integrated development degree" and "coordinated development degree" models; Co-evolution between entropy change and sustainable development of SUE was revealed by the method of Correlation analysis. Then the future evolution and development trends of SUE were forecasted by grey forecasting model GM (1,1). Conclusions were drawn as follows:1 the input-output entropy flow, metabolism entropy production and total entropy of SUE were overall declined with fluctuation during 2003-2013. Orderliness degree of SUE kept increasing towards healthy direction. 2 Sustainable development of SUE was in a good condition towards healthy and sustainable directions during 2003-2013. Synergy between environmental and economic development declined in recent years. 3 Trends of SUE during 2014-2020 were predicted towards healthy and orderly directions. SUE will in general keep sustainable development, while the synergistic degree may decline from the primary coordination to barely coordination. Finally, optimization measures were proposed, including actively supporting the development of urban ecological agriculture, expanding import and export trade, encouraging the growth of recreational, educational and cultural services, further cultivating citizen eco-consciousness, advocating low-carbon life tightening the standards of industrial wastes discharge, improving efficiency of resource utilization, consolidating urban greening rate, expanding investment scale and strengthening environmental protection. This study aimed at providing scientific references for optimization and sustainable development of SUE.