云南省马鞍山沟泥石流危险度评价

为了保证金沙江某码头工程的顺利进行,特对马鞍山沟泥石流做危险度评价。根据对马鞍山沟泥石流的调查与分析,结合前人的研究成果,选取了一次泥石流最大冲出量、松散固体物质储量、最大漂砾粒径、最大容重、最大12小时暴雨量、流域最大相对高差、泥石流发生频率、流域面积等8个危险因子。采用模糊综合评判法,建立评价因子隶属函数与模糊矩阵;依据最大隶属度原则得出所属危险度;结果显示:马鞍山沟泥石流的危险度为中度危险,在强降雨激发下有可能发生泥石流灾害。

Risk Degree Evaluation of Debris Flow in Maanshan,Yunnan

In order to ensure the smooth progress of a pier project in Jinsha River, especially do the risk evaluation of debris flow in Maanshan. Based on investigating and analyzing the feature of debris flow in Maanshan, combined with previous research results, this paper chooses eight risk factors:the maximum amount out of a debris flow, loose solid material reserves, the largest bulk density, the maximum amount rain of 12 hours, the largest relative elevation of river basin, the frequency occurrence of debris flow and basin area. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, establish the subjection function of evaluation factors and fuzzy matrix. The results showed that the risk degree of debris flow in Maansan is moderate, debris flow may occur in heavy rainfall excitation.