基于事故树的城市洪水灾害原因分析与应对策略

近年来频繁发生的城市洪水灾害,造成了巨大损失和严重影响。利用事故树分析法,以北京市"7·21"洪水事故为例,对城市洪水灾害成因进行了分析,构建了事故树、确定了最小割集,并对结构重要度进行了分析。结果表明:极端天气和城市雨岛效应是重要性最强的基本事件,排水不畅、人为因素是洪水灾害造成重大损失的重要症结。从增强预警、改善排水管网、减少硬化地面、疏浚河道等方面对解决城市洪水灾害的对策提出了建议。

Cause Anaysis and Countermeasures of Urban Flood Disaster through Fault Tree Analysis

The frequent occurrence of urban flood disasters in the last few years, end in heavy losses and serious effects. Taking “7 · 21” Beijing flood disaster as an example, this paper analyzed the urban flood causation, constructed the fault tree, fixed the minimum cutting set, and analyzed the structural importance as well. As indicated from the results, the extreme weather and the urban rain island effect are the most important events, while poor drainage and human factors form the main causes for the flood losses. And to deal with urban flood disaster, suggestions are proposed to take countermeasures in the aspects of enhancing early warning, improving drainage system, improving the penetrative ability of the ground, and dredging the river.