经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测 --以江苏省江阴市为例

结构决定功能，把握土地利用结构变化的趋势，调整社会经济发展的策略。优化土地利用结构是土地可持续利用的关键。以经济发达地区江苏省江阴市为例，运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法，构建土地利用结构转移的概率矩阵，预测江阴市2005年和2010年的土地利用结构，并分析其变化特征，以此来研究经济发达地区近期内可能的土地利用结构变化规律。模拟结果表明，经济发达地区土地利用结构变化存在着非农化趋势加快．农地数量减少加速的现象，如果为保证耕地的数量平衡，则可能导致农地内部结构极其不合理。根据研究结果，提出适当释放农地，促进经济发展；运用经济杆杠，提高非农用地利用效率；重视耕地质量，改善生态环境的政策建议。

FORECAST OF LAND STRUCTURE TRANSITION IN DEVELOPED AREA --A CASE STUDY IN JIANGYIN CITY , JIANGSU PROVINCE

System structure decides its function.Grasping the trend of land structure transition,adjusting the so-cial and economical development strategies,and then optimizing land structure can lead to the sustainable land use.This paper uses the theory and method of Markov chain to comstruct the transition probability matrix of land structure by taking Jiangyin city as a case of developed area.The land structure in2005and2010was forecast-ed,and the characters of land structure transition analyzed.The study shows that the rate of land conversion from agriculture to non-agriculture will speed up,and the trend in the decrease of agricultural land will further aggravate.If the quantity of cultivated land has to be kept stable,the unreasonable structure of agricultural land may then be resulted.Some valuable propositions are then proposed,such as the release of some agricultural land,the increase of efficiency of non-agricultural land.More attention should then be paid to the quality of cul-tivated land in order to improve the ecological environment.