贵州省主要地质灾害危险度区划研究

结合贵州省地理环境和地质灾害特征,选择地形地貌、工程地质岩组、断裂构造作用、河流切割程度、年均降雨量及历史地质灾害分布密度等6个一级区划指标和24个二级区划指标,采用黄金分割法确定各指标的权重;应用综合分析的因子叠加法,按4级危险度分区标准,对贵州省主要地质灾害危险度进行区划。区划结果包括:极高危险区约3.22×104km2;高危险区约0.85×104km2;中危险区约2.99×104km2;低危险区约10.56×104km2。采用离散多态系统可靠度的矩阵分析法,认为贵州主要地质灾害发生的危险性主要处在中危险区。

Study on Risk Region Division of Main Geological Hazards in Guizhou Province

According to the geographical conditions and hazardous features of Guizhou, 6 first-class indexes, including topographical conditions, engineering geology, fracture construction function, cut degree of lakes and rivers, average rainfall per year and the density of historical geological disasters, and 24 second-class indexes are chosen to construct the assessment index system. The weights of these indexes are decided by golden section method. Based on it, the risk region division of main geological disasters is made by use of factor superposition method and a 4-level risk standard. The result shows that the most dangerous area is 3.22×104 km2, the highly dangerous area 0.85×104 km2, the middle risk area 2.99×104 km2 and the low risk area 10.56×104 km2. Through matrix analysis method for calculating reliability of discrete multiform system, it is concluded that the place where main geological disasters occur mainly lies in the middle risk area.