基于多因素耦合的航空运输系统脆弱性分析*

为分析航空运输系统脆弱性，提升航空运输系统安全水平。基于脆弱性理论，针对航空运输系统运行特点，提出航空运输系统脆弱性概念，并归纳分析航空运输系统安全影响因素；采用触发器原理建立基于航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合的事故形成机理模型，选取1973—2019年的120起全球重大航空事故为数据基础，构建可量化航空运输系统脆弱性影响因素耦合关系的N-K模型。结果表明:影响航空运输系统耦合关系的关键因素为管理因素，有针对性地加强航空运输系统安全脆弱性关键耦合因素的管控，能更好地提高航空运输系统安全水平。

Vulnerability analysis of air transportation system based on multi factor coupling

To analyze the vulnerability of air transportation system and improve the safety level of air transportation system,based on the vulnerability theory,the concept of air transportation system vulnerability was proposed according to the operation characteristics of air transportation system,and the factors affecting the safety of air transportation system were summarized and analyzed.The trigger principle was used to establish an accident formation mechanism model based on the coupling of factors affecting the vulnerability of air transportation system.Selecting 120 global major aviation accidents from 1973 to 2019 as the data basis,a N-K model which could quantify the coupling relationship of factors affecting the vulnerability of air transportation system was constructed.The results showed that the key factor affecting the coupling relationship of air transportation system was the management factor,and the targeted strengthening of the management and control on the key coupling factors of the safety vulnerability of air transportation system can better improve the safety level of air transportation system.