基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失，以化工多米诺事故为研究对象，探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法，梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程，并以1个天然气压气站为案例，验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。

Risk quantification management of domino accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation

In order to reduce the casualties and property losses caused by the chemical accidents related to hazardous chemicals,the chemical domino accidents were taken as the research object to explore the chain reaction mechanism and risk assessment methods of one or more secondary accidents caused by the initial accident.A method of applying Monte Carlo simulation to dynamically quantify the risk of domino accidents was put forward,and the full cycle management process of identifying,analyzing,assessing,and dealing with the risk of chemical domino accidents was sorted out.A natural gas compressor station was used as a case to verify the effectiveness of risk quantification method for the chemical domino accidents based on the Monte Carlo simulation.The results showed that the method could quantitatively assess the risk of chemical domino accidents more accurately.The sorting of the full cycle management process of domino accident risk can effectively guide the chemical enterprises to carry out the safety management,accident prevention,etc.