跨界水污染事故危害实时判定方法的建立

针对跨界突发性水污染事故特点,基于压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)构建了跨界水污染事故预警指标体系,并确立了各指标的分级标准。采用AHP(层次分析法)-综合模糊评价法建立了事故危害实时判定方法。

Construction of real-time hazards evaluation for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents

In recent year,trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents have become a prominent environmental and social problem.Therefore,it is in dire need of researching on early-warning index system and risk grading for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents.The sudden water pollution accidents bring pressure on the environment,change the situation of environment and cause human beings to respond to the accident.Hence,based on the Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model,we established a forecasting index system for trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents caused by soluble hazardous leakage.Futhernore,in this paper,considering the pollution accidents characters and operability principles,the forecasting index system included twelve factors from four aspects: water environmental risk sources,health and ecological risks,trans-boundary risks and emergency decision-making commands.Then,weight value of each index of the index system was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) through consulting experts.According to "China environmental emergency contingency plans" the trans-boundary sudden water pollution accidents were divided into four levels: particularly significant tans-boundary environmental pollution event(I),significant trans-boundary environmental pollution event(II),general trans-boundary environmental pollution event(III),slightly trans-boundary environmental pollution event(IV).At the same time,grading standards of every early warning index have also been obtained by referring to the existing international standards,codes and expert advices,as well as through comparing the hazard levels of historical environmental events,AHP evaluation and synthetically fuzzy assessment have also been applied to judge the risk grading of sudden water pollution accidents forecasting.In the process,fuzzy comparison matrix for trans-boundary environmental pollution event was built and the fuzzy weighted average method was used for comprehensive analysis and evaluation of determined matrix vector.These results are able to provide a theoretical model for intelligent development of trans-boundary sudden water pollution early-warning system.