主成分分析法和德尔菲结合法的影响驾驶行为指标构建

为了构建影响驾驶行为的指标,统计了影响驾驶行为的41项因素。针对这些因素,制作了调查问卷,并对各个行业的120名驾驶员发放问卷。对收回的有效问卷结果进行统计,并采用主成分分析法和模糊德尔菲与灰色德尔菲法结合两种方法对问卷结果进行分析。主成分分析与德尔菲结合法都能有效地将驾驶员观点定量化,进而得到对驾驶员行为相对影响较大的指标。比较两种方法的分析结果,运用交叉法得到了19个主要影响驾驶行为的指标。

Constructing driving behavior indicators using principal component analysis and combination of fuzzy and grey Delphi method

The study on the influencing factors of driving behavior was reviewed in this paper and the driver’s cognitive environment was divided into four types.The influencing factors that have some effect on driving behavior in each environment were counted and summarized.At last,41 factors which affect the driving behaviors were determined in establishing the indicator system.A questionnaire was designed based on these factors and then handed out to 120 drivers from various industries.After that,the questionnaire forms were collected and the invalid questionnaires were sorted out,the return rate was 74.2%.The result of valid questionnaires was analyzed by two methods,principal component analysis(PCA) of the statistical software SPSS 17.0 as well as combination of fuzzy and grey Delphi method.The invalid views of drivers were quantified by both methods and the major indicators that relatively affect the driving behavior were thus obtained.The reliability coefficient and the inspection of KMO(Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) and Bartlett for the questionnaire were analyzed by using PCA.Cranach’s alpha value of 0.900 and KMO value of 0.682 indicated high reliability of the questionnaire;PCA can thus be used to analyze the questionnaire.Total 11 principal components which include 23 indicators were obtained by the PCA.Triangular fuzzy numbers of 41 indicators were calculated by fuzzy Delphi method and 34 factors that affect driving behavior were acquired,while decision vector of 41 indicators were calculated through Grey Delphi method and 34 factors were obtained as well.With the combination of both Delphi methods,33 factors that affect driving behavior were determined.The analytical results of the two methods were compared and summarized by crossing method.19 major indicators that affect driving behavior were obtained according to the size of the value,which provide a reference for the road safety management.