A legislative view on science and predictive models

Preparation of European environmental policy needs detailed and consistent assessments. All possible and available means have to be applied to get the optimal solution for current and upcoming problems in the environment. As there will be a recognition of the increasing importance of linkages between the various aspects in the environment, a sound and appropriate method for tackling the integration problem is needed. One of the main features of Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) deals with the linkage between societal activities and the relevant environmental issues. The European Environment Agency (EEA) uses a chain of linkages between the driving forces within society (D), the pressure on the environment (P), the state of the environment itself (S), the impact on people and nature (I) and the desirable response (R). This approach is called the DPSIR chain. For each environmental issue a chain, including the linkages, could be developed by combining available knowledge and data. In fact it is a complex multi-dimensional system of relations between the chains belonging to the various aspects. Modelling the integration of all available scientific knowledge and data is the only way to deliver adequate information for the policy preparation process. The EEA made use of this approach for its assessments of Europe's environment. Every three years the EEA will publish an "Assessment" and a "State of the Environment". The latest publication was "Europe's Environment: The Second Assessment", in June 1998 (EEA,1998). The next will be the "State of the Environment 1998" (EEA,1998), to be published in 1999. A prospective analysis forms part of the preparation of this report, in which modelling, based on the same DPSIR-approach is essential. The above-mentioned publications contribute to the preparation of new policy lines within the European Community.