基于投入产出模型的居民消费品载能碳排放测算与分析

论文建立测算与分析居民消费品载能碳排放的投入产出模型,基于可比价投入产出序列表对中国居民消费品载能碳排放进行实证分析。研究表明,1992-2005年,我国居民消费品载能碳排放从33 876×10⁴ t C增长至67 940×10⁴ t C,增幅达1.0倍;其人均值从289.1 kg C增长至519.6 kg C,增幅为79.7%。居民消费碳排放的增幅远小于消费价值量增幅;居民消费碳排放占我国能源消费排放总量的比重波动下降。在排放结构方面,农业、 食品类消费品的排放比重大幅下降,居住、 交通、 信息等服务性消费的排放大幅上升。居民消费品载能碳排放的城乡差距不断扩大,人均排放的城乡比从2.4增至4.0;在排放结构的变动上则表现出一定的趋同特征。我国居民人均消费排放水平远低于欧美发达国家的同期水平,1990年代的人均排放水平仅为美国的1/14,在欧洲国家的1/5至1/2之间。研究认为,通过优化消费结构带动产业结构调整以及促进排放强度降低,未来我国有可能在持续提高居民消费水平的同时,有效减缓消费排放。

Calculation and Analysis on Indirect Carbon Emissions from Residential Consumption Based on Input-Output Model

In this paper, the indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China during 1992－2005 are calculated and analyzed using the input-output model based on the comparable price input-output tables. The empirical results show that the indirect residential carbon emissions in China rose up from 3.3876×10⁸ t C to 6.7940×10⁸ t C with the growth rate of 100%; the indirect residential carbon emission per capita rose up from 289.1 kg C to 519.6 kg C with the growth rate of 79.7%. Both of these growth rates were much lower than that of residential consumption scale, and the ratio of residential emissions to that of the whole national carbon emission tended to fluctuant decline. The proportion of emissions from agriculture and foods dropped considerably, while that from service sector, such as residence, transportation, and information service, rose sharply during this period. The gap of emission scale between urban and rural residents tended to be widened, with the ratio of urban residential emission per capita to the rural ranging from 2.4 to 4.0, even though changes in emission structure of both areas showed some homogenous trend. Compared with developed countries, the indirect carbon emission per capita from residential consumption in China was only 1/14 to that in the USA in the 1990s, as well as 1/5 to 1/2 to that in European countries, showing that the residential emission level in China remains still in fairly low in meeting basic needs, and needs to be improved reasonably. These results imply that it is possible for China in the future that people’s living standard may be improved continuously while carbon emissions may be slowed effectively by upgrading residential consumption structure to adjust industrial structure, as well as to reduce carbon intensity.