Characterization and Identification of Trends in Average Ambient Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Levels through Trajectory Cluster Analysis in Eastern Canada

Abstract

In many locations in Eastern Canada, ambient levels of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and surface ozone (O₃) depend on airflow direction and synoptic scale meteorological conditions. In this study, a cluster analysis was performed on 10 yr (1994 –2003) of back-trajectory data for 11 locations in Eastern Canada, resulting in the identification of 10 unique back-trajectory clusters (or airflows) for each location. The airflows were then used to characterize and identify spatial and temporal trends in the daily maximum 8-hr average O₃ (dmax 8-hr O₃) and the daily average PM_2.5 levels. Results showed that airflows from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southern Ontario were associated, on average, with the highest O₃ levels at most locations in Eastern Canada.For PM_2.5, the highest levels occurred with airflows from the Eastern Ohio River Valley. At major urban locations in Ontario and Quebec, the warm season mean (May to September) dmax 8-hr O₃ and the annual mean PM_2.5 were, on average, 12 parts per billion and 7.6 μg/m³ higher, respectively, than airflows from the north. Elevated levels of O₃ and PM_2.5 also occurred under light airflows, and, on average, the levels under light airflows were higher than their nonlight counterparts. At several locations in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Kejimkujik, the annual warm season mean dmax 8-hr O₃ experienced a statistically significant (95% confidence) increasing trend over the 10-yr period. When airflow direction was considered, a number of locations experienced statistically significant upward trends in O₃ for airflow from the north and northwest. Several locations also showed significant upward trends associated with airflow from the southwest passing over Michigan and Southwestern Ontario. Although there are no statistically significant downward trends, airflows from the southwest have shown a reduction in O₃ levels in Southwestern Ontario in more recent years.