基于信息熵的危险天气下进近管制风险评估

针对危险天气下进近管制系统运行风险性大、易发不安全事件的问题,提出根据一段时期内不安全事件的信息来评估该时期进近管制系统运行的风险,从而为以后进近管制系统的安全运行管理提供依据。首先,通过分析危险天气下管制系统运行过程的风险因素,建立风险评估指标体系。其次,给出评估指标灰色关联度属性的计算方法,利用其反映出的信息熵完成指标权重的确定和风险评估模型的建立。最后,应用该模型评估某进近管制中心一段时期内管制运行的风险状态水平,得到了风险值和风险级别,验证了该方法的适用性。

Approach control for the risk assessment based on the information entropy under the reckless weather conditions

The paper is to devote itself to a study of the risk assessment due to the disastrous weather conditions based on the information entropy approach,in hoping to reduce the incidence of the unsafe events.For the study purpose,we have established a risk assessment method known as the approach control through analyzing the unsafe events within a period of time so as to be able to provide necessary empirical experience for the future weather safety management.In doing so,we have first of all established a risk assessment system of indicators on the basis of the risk-involving factors from the point of view of analyzing the unsafe events under the reckless weather conditions.The said assessment system of the indicators here we intend to bring about is supposed to be made of 25 indexes under the 6 subsystems,such as the establishment of the subsystems of the situational awareness,the control process,the emergency response to the air current controllers (ACC),the operational environment structure,the automotive control subsystem and the corresponding supplementary coordinative subsystems,etc.Taking into full account all the subsystems,we have worked out the approach-control running process in the paper including all the subsystems stated above.Secondly,our assessment model intends to aim at taking all the indicating factors as the objective reflection for the actual control system risk.The study finds that grey incidence properties of risk indicators can be well explained as the objective reflection.We have established a calculation method for the grey incidence properties via the assessment indicators.In addition,it is also necessary to build up a comprehensive calculating method for the indicating system for the reasonable assessment weighting needs with the help of the indicator weights and the risk assessment model by introducing into the information entropy of grey incidence properties from the assessment indicators,which we have eventually applied for assessing the risk value and risk level of approach control center over a period of time.Thus,the results of our study prove the effectiveness of the model,which can be expected to be as a brilliant tool and new approach to guaranteeing the safety of our air traffic.