基于物元分析法的古建筑火灾风险评价

古建筑火灾风险评估是突发事件应对中"关口前移"的体现,以物元分析法为基础提出了古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型,并对某世界名镇内古建筑进行风险评估。首先,在火灾风险影响因素的事故树分析基础上,选取能够反映古建筑火灾风险特性的51个指标作为评价指标体系;其次,建立古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型;最后,根据实地调研数据进行标准化赋值,实现对古建筑火灾风险的定量化评价,通过评价方法对比验证了模型有效性和先进性。结果表明,所评价建筑的总体关联度系数为-0.248,四项"优秀"级别指标关联度分别为-0.129、-0.183、-0.211、-0.216,两项"较差"级别指标关联度为0.025、-0.016,表明所评价建筑火灾风险等级的显性结果为"优秀"级别,但隐性结果为"良好+"级别,火灾风险等级潜在提升能力较强。

On the fire risk assessment for the ancient buildings based on the matter element analysis

The article is intended to present its study results on the fire risk assessment for ancient buildings.In hoping to display the dominant results and the recessive results of our assessment,we have chosen a method known as matter element based analysis by way of an event tree.Based on the event tree analysis,51 indicators have been selected from 6 aspects,those are fire protection features of the building,building environment,fire equipment,evacuation equipment,fire safety management as well as the external aid around the buildings,and they all comprise the assessment system.Secondly,we have built up a matter element model in correspondence with the assessment method,which is fit for dealing with the incompatible relationship of indicators at all levels.All measures having been made ready,the time would come for us to conduct the detailed investigation for the fire risk assessment for the famous town in focus on the basis of the local government control and management status-in-situ actuality.Stressed on the actual situation,we began to apply the score of indicators to the investigation process and calculate the results in accordance with the matter-element model.As a result,we have discovered the correlation coefficient of the whole building,which should be equal to-0.248,suggesting that the dominant result tends to be at a level of being "good" though the recessive result has been found below the said "good" level,Thus,it would follow from the prediction that,if great measures can be taken,it will soon come back to the original level,because there exist four indicators scored in "good" levels,respectively,whose correlation coefficients can be illustrated as-0.129,-0.183,-0.211,-0.216.And,of the four correlated coefficients,two indicators should be scored as " poor" level,equal to 0.025,-0.016,respectively.It is just for the said analysis of the potential significance of the above values that,the closer the correlation coefficient tends to be to zero,the greater the potential improvement possibility will be.Thus,it can be concluded that the evaluation model based on the matter element analysis can not only be in a position to predict the building fire risk level more accurately,but also can forecast the trend of fire development at an overall level.Therefore,what the article has done can be expected to provide a reference to the assessment of the ancient buildings in a rather rational and scientific way.