基于未确知测度理论的巷道稳定性评价

评价指标的不确定性是影响巷道稳定性评价的关键。为提高巷道稳定性评价的针对性,建立科学合理的评价模型,从地质条件和工程实际出发,运用未确知测度理论,选取影响巷道稳定性的岩体结构、顶板岩性、岩层倾角、开采深度、施工质量、断面形状、断面面积、支护效果、顶板控制方法、顶板位移量、巷道使用时间等11项因素。根据实测数据建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数,构建矿山巷道的稳定性等级评价和排序模型。采用定性、定量方法分析巷道稳定性评价中的不确定性影响因素,利用熵计算各影响因素的指标权重。依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出巷道稳定性评价结果,并进行稳定程度排序。将该方法应用于某矿8条回采巷道的稳定性评价中。岩层倾角、开采深度、顶板位移量等3个评价指标权重比值差异较大,属于敏感性评价指标。较巷道R_(03)而言,巷道R_(08)的岩层倾角和开采深度2个评价指标的敏感性尤为明显,比值分别达77.43%、-46.72%。置信度取值的增加对评价结果没有显著影响,评价结果的可靠度较高。研究表明,将未确知测度理论应用于巷道稳定性评价是可行的。

On the roadway stability and reliability evaluation based on the uncertainty measuring theory

This article is to devote itself to the evaluation of the roadway stability and reliability based on the uncertainty measuring theory so as to establish a scientific and rational evaluation model.To overcome such a kind of uncertainty,we have chosen 11 factors that may influence the roadway stability,such as the rock structure,roof rock,strata dip,the mining depth,the supporting prop construction quality,the cross-sectional shape,the cross-sectional area,supporting effects,the roof control method,the roof displacement amount,and so on.What is more,we have also taken into general account the geological conditions and engineering practice on the basis of the uncertainty measuring theory so as to improve the pertinence of the roadway stability evaluation.Among all the influential factors,the key one is the uncertainty,which has made us establish the sequential model according to the unascertained measure functions of the factors based on the measured data.In doing so,the article has made an analysis of the uncertain factors on the stability evaluation of the roadway and worked out the index weight of each factor by the entropy grading determination with the qualitative and quantitative methods according to the confidence criteria so as to get the results and rank the corresponding degrees.It is due to the application of the aforementioned evaluation model to the stability evaluation of the 8 roadways of a coal mine that may help us to arrive at the following results:The weight ratio among the three evaluation indexes,that is,the rock strata inclination,the mining depth,and the roof displacement value,should belong to quite the different sensitive evaluation factors.As compared with the roadway R03,the sensitivity of the other two evaluation indexes,that is,the rock slope and the mining depth of roadway R08 should be particularly obvious,with their comparative ratio being up to 77.43％,-46.72％,with the reliability of the evaluation results turning to be very high.However,the value of confidence increase may have no significant impact on the evaluation results.Therefore,our study proves it feasible to take the unascertained measure theory into the roadway stability evaluation,which can be expected to provide a new approach to the stability evaluation of the roadways in mining practice.