基于ISM的道路交通安全影响因素研究

为提高交通安全管理水平,促进交通的可持续发展。基于解释结构模型原理,综合考虑车、路和环境因素,构建了影响道路交通安全的影响因素结构模型。该模型不但能够弥补分析结构要素之间内在影响机制的不足,而且对于研究道路交通安全结构要素之间的层次性和复杂性有天然的优势。数据来源于由13位专家构成的ISM小组,其中7位为来自高校从事交通安全研究的教授,6位为来自北京市、上海市、广州市、武汉市等交通运输委员会的高层管理者,保证了数据的科学性和可靠性。采用解释结构图分析车、路和环境各影响因素之间的关系,结果表明,众多因素会对道路交通安全产生影响,车辆技术条件、定期检验合格率、车辆救援设备的完备状况、安全设施是制约道路交通安全的直接影响因素,道路限速、道路负荷度、大客(或货车)比例、交通量、交通监控是影响道路交通安全的间接因素,车辆超限(超载)状况、车流密度、道路路面类型、道路设施完备性、天气状况、单向车道数和地形特征是影响道路交通安全的最根本因素。为提高道路交通安全管理水平,首先,应进一步完善《道路交通安全法实施条例》,加强对车辆定期检验的监督;其次,健全道路信息公示制度,提升交通监控水平,引入相关路段道路限速、负荷度、交通量动态信息显示及预警机制;最后,加强车辆超限(超载)及车流密度的监控,健全道路设施的配套制度。

Analysis of the key influential factors on the road traffic safety based on the interpretive structural model

This paper is aimed to heighten the traffic safety management level and promote the sustainable development and control of the traffic and transportation of the country based on the analysis of the structural model principle of the road traffic and transportation.For the said purpose,it has taken into a comprehensive account such factors,as the vehicle,road and the roadside environment,which may not only constitute the structural model and affect the efficiency of the inherent mechanism of the traffic and transportation system,but also form the natural hierarchical complexity of the structural elements of the entire road traffic safety system.The information and data summary quoted in the paper originates from the 13 experts of the ISM team,of which 7 professors come from the college level traffic safety research institutions and the other senior managers are from the traffic and transportation managing commissions from Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Wuhan so as tomake the data quoted fully confident and reliable.What is more,the paper has also managed to analyze the interlocked relationship among such factors,as the vehicle,the road and the environment interferencing factors via the interpretation of the structural map.As a result,it has been found that there exists a lot of factors which have direct effects on the road traffic safety,for instance,the technical and material qualities of the vehicle,the inspection responsibility sense and the actual frequency rate of the regular inspection,the entire status-in-situ of the vehicle safety and the emergency-rescue quaranteeing means and the safety-ensuring facilities.At the same time,the indirect factors responsible for the traffic and transportation safety may also include the road vehicle moving velocity up-limit,the up-to-date road traffic load limit,the maximal passenger-vehicle load rate,the traffic volume and density control and monitoring,etc.Besides,it is also of primary significance to take into full care the most essential elements,such as the vehicle overrun conditions,the traffic density,the road pavement type,the road facility up-to-date maintenance,the weather conditions,one-way lane number and the terrain features.Therefore,it is necessary to stress the importance of the road transportation quality maintenance and work out the entire detailed "Road Traffic Safety control Regulations" in addition to further strengthening of the regular inspection of vehicle supervision so as to heighten the road traffic safety management standard.And,secondly,it is also vital to improve the social public monitoring and control system on the road information and traffic accidents,particularly,the deathcausing casualties to win the monitoring favor and vigilance of the entire society and introduce the relevant road speed limitation restrictions in addition to the traffic volume dynamic information display and early warning mechanism.And,finally,it is also essential to strengthen the vehicle overrun and the traffic density monitoring,so as to ameliorate the road facilities supporting and sustainence system.