基于云理论和组合赋权法的牵引变电所风险评估

为解决传统评估方法无法同时反映牵引变电所运行风险的模糊性和随机性的问题,将云理论中的云重心评估法运用于京津城际高速铁路某牵引变电所运行风险评估中。通过建立该牵引变电所运行风险评估指标体系,实现了从管理、人员、设备、环境4个方面的牵引变电所运行风险水平定性概念向定量表示的合理转换,并引入联盟博弈思想对各指标进行组合赋权,进而对该牵引变电所运行风险现状进行综合评估。结果表明,该方法直观可行,评估结果符合客观实际情况。

Risk assessment of the traction substation based on the cloud theory and combination weighing method

The present paper is aimed at introducing the cloud bary-center theory evaluation method into the risk assessment in the safety operation of a traction substation under Beijing-Tianjin high-speed railway intercity communication system through analyzing the operation data,the defect records of the traction substation and the feedback of the operators and the management staff members.To achieve the purpose,it is necessary to solve the problem why the traditional evaluation methods fail to effectively reflect the fuzziness and randomness of the risk nature in the safe operation of the traction substation.To our knowledge,first of all,it involves the departments of the management,operational workers,equipment and transportation environment.Secondly,it is necessary to build up an evaluation criterion and then transform it into an evaluation cloud model.For this purpose,we have managed to identify and determine the objective weights of the secondary level indices and the subjective weights of secondary level indices in the hierarchical analytic process by using the entropy weight method and the grey correlation degree method,so as to excavate the weight coefficient of the indices at all levels effectively and to make the evaluation results more accurate and rational.And,then,we have managed to fuse the three weights into the secondary level weighing indices through the coalitional game theory.Finally,joining the index weights at all levels,we have done an analysis of the evaluation results of the expertise and worked out the deviation degree of the cloud bary-center system via the cloud theory,including the evaluation results of the risk situations in the safe operation of the traction substation.And,in turn,the results let us suggest that more measures have to be taken to reduce the risk indices in the safe operation.The evaluation results also indicate that the method we have proposed is in-tuitive with the evaluation process being clear in line with the objective actualities.