基于MPRR和模糊SPA模型的家庭旅馆火灾风险评价

火灾风险评价作为灾害源头管理的主要环节,对家庭旅馆火灾隐患管控起到至关重要的作用,但合理开展家庭旅馆火灾风险评价却面临较大的挑战。针对家庭旅馆火灾风险评价中缺乏科学评价指标、评价过程较为主观的现状,基于MPRR模型构建火灾风险指标体系,尝试利用特征值偏离度赋予指标客观权重,最后选择某景区家庭旅馆为评价对象,采用改进的SPA模型进行了火灾风险分析。结果表明:被评价家庭旅馆的火灾风险联系数为"0.3904",风险等级为V,风险较大;Ma~Pb顶层指标属I级同势较弱,系数分别为0.456 9、0.372 0、0.412 4、0.400 0;Ra~Rb顶层指标属V级反势较强,系数为0.704 7、0.457 0。该评价结果能够较好地凸显家庭旅馆火灾风险的特征,与调研结果吻合。

Fire risk liability evaluation for the private home-styled hotels based on a MPRR and fuzzy SPA model

Aiming at the problems on fire risk liabilities faced by the private home-styled hotels,the author of the paper has to face a thorny problem of the contradiction between the ‘ certainty’ of characteristic values of evaluation indexes and the ‘ uncertainty’of evaluation criteria.This is because the evaluation process and criteria might be so subjective that it is likely to influence the reliability of the quantitative and qualitative evaluation.It is based on such a critical belief that we have proposed a SPA model,or a method as can be regarded as to deal with some data and uncertain problems.In the said model,we have to build first of all an index system of the fire risk prevention and fighting based on the MPRR model by joining the connection numbers with the weights of the indexes and then working out the sequential iterative calculation procedure.And,then,it would be necessary for us to manage to use characteristic value deviation to get the weights of indexes in reference to the amplitude measurement method.Furthermore,it would be necessary to identify and determine the levels of the indexes based on the principle of maximum membership degree.At the same time,it is also needed to take the pair potential as an important indicator of nature discriminant and include it into the SPA model In so doing,it would make us in a position to analyze aforementioned fire risks in a certain scenic area with the improved SPA model.Practically speaking,the method we have proposed can be used in the following manner:turning the connection number of the hotel:"0.390 4",which should be set under the fire risk gradation of V.The set pair potential should be placed at the potential level 3,which implies that the hotel's fire risk is high,but the tendency of the fire to create great risk remains unthreatening.The top indexes of Ma-Pb should be labeled as grade I,and the coefficients of each index have to be equal to 0.456 9,0.372 0,0.412 4,0.400 0,respectively.Moreover,if the set pair potential is labeled as the potential level 4,it ought to remind us that,though the fire risk of the hotel is low,the tendency to get the risk more minimal should be weak.The indexes of Ra-Rb should be attributed to grade V,whose coefficient should be equal to 0.704 7,0.457 0.The evaluation results can thus turn to serve as a better highlight for the fire risk characteristics of the private home-styled hotel.Therefore,the method of ours can be thought to deserve to be promoted as a valuable reference.