中国农业源碳汇估算及其与农业经济发展的耦合分析

农业作为重要的产业部门,在满足人们基本的物质需求的同时具有重要的生态保障和碳汇功能,充分发掘农业的碳汇潜力对于农业绿色化发展和农民增收具有重要意义。本文量化测算了我国1993—2011年的农业源碳汇潜力,并构建农业源浄碳汇与农业经济发展的耦合模型,结果发现农业源碳汇量由1993年的52 318.70万t波动增加到2011年的66 073.77万t,年均增加1.38%,但是农业源的浄碳汇量却呈现波动递减趋势,由1993年的36 691.72万t减少到34 815.67万t,其中粮食作物的CO2吸收总量占据主要部分,经济作物CO2吸收量在农业总的CO2吸收量所占的比重虽小,但是增速较快,年均增幅达到4.15%;从影响因素来看,农业源碳汇和耕地面积关联度不大,农作物单位产量和农业源碳汇呈正相关;农业源浄碳汇与农业经济发展之间处于强负耦合状态,耦合状态不理想,农业产值与农业净碳汇关联度不强,这主要是由高投入、高消耗的农业生产方式引发农业碳排放增加和农业总产出效益提升等原因造成的。最后,本文针对性地提出促进我国农业减排增汇的对策建议:强化政府引导,从农业的规划、生产、消费等多领域进行引导;加大农业减排增汇的技术、资金和人力支持,为农业的减排增汇做好保障;通过林地增汇、农田增汇、草地增汇、综合增汇等多种手段,提升农地的碳汇能力;加快碳市场交易体系建设,以市场杠杆推进农业的减排增汇。

China's agriculture carbon sink estimation and its coupling analysiswith agricultural economy development

Agriculture as an important industry has important ecological protection and carbon sequestration functions to satisfy people's needs of material.Fully exploiting the potential of carbon sequestration of agricultural income has important significance for green agricultural development and farmers' income growth.The paper quantitatively calculated agricultural sources of carbon potential from 1993 to 2011, and constructed a coupling model of the net carbon sequestration of agricultural source and agricultural economic development, and then it could be found that from 1993 to 2011 the agricultural sources of carbon amount increased from 523.187 0 million tons to 660.737 7 million tons, an average annual increase of 1.38%, but the net carbon sequestration of agricultural sources was showing fluctuations in a decreasing trend from 366.917 2 million tons of 1993 reduced to 348.156 7 million tons, of which crop CO2 absorption occupied the main part, and CO2 absorption of economic crops occupied a small proportion in total agricultural CO2, but grew rapidly, and the average annual growth was 4.15%.From the view of factor impact, carbon sequestration of agricultural sources and cultivated area had little correlation, and crop yield and carbon sequestration of agricultural sources were positively correlated.The relation between agricultural carbon source purification and agricultural economic development was in a strong negative coupling state, and the coupling condition was not ideal.The correlation between agricultural output and agricultural net carbon sink was not strong, which was mainly caused by increased agricultural carbon emissions and the total agricultural output benefit resulting from agricultural production mode with high investment and high consumption.Finally, this article put forward countermeasures of reducing carbon emission and increosing carbon sink: strengthen government's guidance from the fields of agricultural planning, production, and consumption;strengthen technical, financial and personnel support to reduce emissions and increase carbon sink,improve carbon sink capability through forest sink, farmlang sink, grassland sink, and integrated sink;speed up the development of carbon market trading system and market leverage to promote agricultural emissions reduction and growth.