生育政策调整对人口红利效应的影响及应对

由于计划生育国策的实行,中国在总体人口基数得到控制的同时面临人口红利消失殆尽的现状。推行二孩政策,对缓解因第一次人口红利消失而产生的社会经济矛盾意义重大,并为第二次人口红利的发展提供契机。通过对比分析二孩政策实施前后人口红利效应,对更为客观地认识政策实质,保障政策落实,进而推动人口红利的可持续发展,具有必要性和现实意义。本文运用PADISINT人口预测软件预测了中国未来一定时期的抚养比,分析了生育政策调整实施将会产生的人口红利效应。结果表明:1二孩政策的实行对"储蓄率"及"城镇化率"的提升具有促进作用;2在城市,二孩政策的人口红利效应主要通过提升劳动年龄段的人口数量体现;在农村,则主要通过推动性别比的均衡发展体现;3在城市及农村均缺乏鼓励生育二孩的配套政策;4二孩政策的生效具有滞后性;5第二次人口红利的契机难以把握。结合本文预测结果,2050年,老年抚养比高达51.45%,为使人口红利效应得到更为充分的发挥,需要进一步补充、完善现有制度,鼓励生育二孩;注重教育,特别是针对农村女孩的高等教育,提高人口"质量"以弥补"数量"缺失;合理引导老龄人群消费观、投资观、从业观的调整,逐步营造"养老"与"生育"相辅相成的可持续性社会环境。

Influence and countermeasures of adjustment of childbearing policy on demographic bonus

Due to the one-child policy, Chinese total population base was controlled, but meanwhile, running out of the demographic bonus is the current situation which China has to face.By carrying out the universal Second Child Policy, the shock of economy and society that came from the disappearance of demographic bonus will be alleviated, and it will provide a new opportunity to develop the second demographic bonus.By comparing the effect of demographic bonus before and after the universal Second Child Policy, there is of great significance in knowing policy substance, ensuring policy implementation, and promoting the sustainable development of demographic bonus.By using PADIS-INT method to predict the dependency ratio, this article analyzed the demographic effects of the universal Second Child Policy.The predicted results are as follows:①It can promote 'savings rate' and 'urbanization rate'.②In urban areas, the demographic effects of the universal Second Child Policy are reflected by the improvement of the working-age population;in rural areas, they are reflected by promoting the balance of the gender ratio.③The lack of policies about encouraging people to give more than one birth exists in urban and rural areas.④There is the time-lag effect in the universal Second Child Policy.⑤It's difficult to catch the opportunity of developing the second demographic bonus.According to the forecasting results of this article, in 2050, the aged-dependency ratio will be 51.45%.To give full play to the effect of demographic bonus, it is necessary to release the policy of the allowances of the second child as the supporting policy;we should pay more attention to train high quality talents to make up the time difference from action to effect;in the aspect of consumption, investment and employment, we should set up some operation to help the aged to build a sustainable social environment between 'aging care' and 'fertility'.