Spatial and temporal projected distribution of four crop plants in Egypt

This study focuses on the management of the local agroecosystems in order to adapt planting or sowing practices for the projected climate change scenarios. It is projected that there will be increased air temperature throughout all four seasons in the coming 100 years, from the southern towards the northern parts of Egypt. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of that increased air temperature on the spatial and temporal distribution of four of the major economic crops in Egypt. The study species are cotton (Gossypium barbadense L., cv. Giza 89), wheat (Triticum aestivum L., cv. Gemiza 9), rice (Oryza stiva L., cv. Sakha 101) and maize (Zea mays L., cv. Hybrid 10). Optimum air temperature allowing maximum growth for each of the study crop cultivars and the current and projected air temperature patterns in the future years were used for projection of the seasonal and crop distribution maps in the years 2005, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. Results showed that sowing dates of a target crop may be managed in order to allow maximum predicted planting area in the same region. The current maximum area suitable for planting the Cotton crop in Egypt (104 thousand Fadden/year; one Fadden = 0.96 hectare or 0.42 acre) showed few variations over the coming hundred years. In this case, the sowing dates should be changed from the hotter months (February to April) to the cooler months (January to February). Alternatively, a great reduction in the area planted by Wheat crop was predicted in the coming 100 years. Despite the early planting, a reduction of about 147 thousand Fadden/year was projected by the year 2075. On the other hand, with earlier sowing dates, the maximum areas that are planted by Rice and Maize may not be greatly affected by the projected increase in air temperature.