Modelling succession of Eastern Canadian mixedwood forest

The succession of a mixed species stand of the Acadian Forest was simulated by adopting an approach taken by Botkin et al. (1972) (JABOWA) and later modified by Shugart and West (1977) (FORET). The model simulates the dynamic aspects of successional behaviour of the stand by projecting the current stage of vegetation composition (size of each individual of each species present on a 1/12 ha plot) with an element of randomness. The growth of each tree is modeled as a function of its size (represented by its diameter at breast height (dbh), height and leaf area index), the climate, the tree's tolerance to shade and the competition for available resources and space. Stand aboveground biomass (metric ton/ha), leaf area index, number of trees/ha and species composition of the stand were simulated under seven different conditions: (a) normal treatment, (b) increasing biomass maximum 30%, (c) decreasing biomass maximum 30%, (d) increasing degree-days 30%, (e) decreasing degree-days 30%, (f) increasing light extinction coefficient 30% and (g) decreasing light extinction coefficient 30%. Under the first set of conditions (normal treatment), the aboveground biomass reached a maximum value during the first hundred years, decreased during the second, and remained stable for the rest of the 500-year simulation period. The leaf area showed a similar pattern. The total number of trees/ha decreased sharply during the first fifty years and reached a stable value by the end of the first hundred years. Successional patterns and species competitive abilities were interpreted from the accumulated biomass of each species over the simulation period under the different treatments.Species composition of the stand under the normal treatment showed dominance of deciduous species at early stages of succession, with conifer species being increased and becoming dominant at the end of the simulation period. When the climate was raised 30% (warmer) over the average, the deciduous species continued their dominance over the course of the simulation period. Other simulated species dynamics also appeared to follow what is known about their successional behaviour in the field.