Testing model feasibility and sufficiency through laboratory simulation: A case study

Complex computer simulations of ecological models often fail to have much impact on later stages of applied research and management. We believe that this reflects a methodological gap. We present a case study where we try to bridge this gap. A recently published general model for insect outbreak has not yet been tested adequately in the field because of the complexity, size, and time involved in real-world insect pest outbreaks. However, a modified version of the model can be used to predict complex dynamics for a laboratory managed population of vinegar flies (Drosophila melanogaster).A comparison of the dynamics of the laboratory system with the simulation predictions allowed us to conclude that the model is “feasible”, i.e. under certain circumstances the model can predict the dynamics of some real system. These results were obtained despite considerable environmental and biological variability, indicating the robustness of the model. The factors chosen for the model appear to be “sufficient” to describe the real system's essential dynamics. Testing for feasibility and sufficiency should, in our opinion, always precede the much more expensive stages of field testing.